With all Prezza's problems, inside and outside the trouser department, the string of revelations about the Home Office, Tessa Jowell's 'private' problems, 'cash for honours' and Levy's arrest, a deeply unpopular war in Iraq and a Prime Minister whose popularity is plunging, and all the problems associated with burn out and over familiarity.... the Labour Party could not have been surprised if it found itself 12-15 points behind in the opinion polls.

But we're not. The Tories have a very small lead, and even that looks vulnerable every time Cameron shows his face on TV. Over at ConservativeHome, one of the commenters thinks he knows why:

The current political landscape is fascinating, even when like me you are on the wrong side of it. I decided not to renew my Conservative membership as I loathe so much of what Dave is doing in aping his idol, Tony Blair. However, it's clear that the Conservative Party is attracting new voters. Question is do the new ones offset the old ones like me who are going to stay at home.

Sad anecdote: my safe Conservative seat has seen Association membership fall this year from 1250 to 900. Wonder why.